Picking a winner from any horse race can be extremely difficult, however there are some things we can look at to help us make an educated prediction.

Form

On any race card there is detailed information on a horses form. Experienced bettors will study this form (in combination with other factors like the horses condition, the going, carried weight and weather conditions) to pick the most likely winner.

Form is the horses performance on it’s most recent races and can be seen as a list of numbers underneath the horses name. The numbers indicate the horses finishing position is it’s recent recent races. Going from left to right with the oldest races to the left and the most recent to the right.

  • 1-9 indicates the horses finishing position, so a 5 would mean the horse came fifth.
  • 0 would indicate the horse did not finish the race in the top 9 but did finish the race.
  • P or PU tells us that the horse pulled up and did not finish the race. This may have been due to injury to the horse or jockey.
  • A – symbol shows the races either side of the – were in different seasons
  • A / symbol means the horse missed a large period of time, perhaps a whole season.
  • F would indicate the horse fell
  • R indicates a horse refused a jump and therefore pulled up
  • BD, the horse was brought down by another horse. Usually due to a collision at a jump.
  • U or UR means that the horse unseated its jockey.

Some race cards also show the following information

  • C – shows that the horse has won that course previously
  • D – the horse has won over the distance before
  • CD – the horse has won both this course and distance previously
  • BF – the horse was the favourite for the race but failed to win

Horses Condition

This is open to interpretation but people who spend a lot of time around horses can tell if a horse is healthy and feeling good on the day. Typically you have to be at the race course to take advantage of these signs as they can be hard to see on the television, that is if they even show the horses in any detail prior to a race.

All horses will be shown in the parade ring before a race.

Some things to look out for:

  • Does the horse have a shiny coat and bright eyes? The horse may be a highly fancied favourite but if it’s not feeling great on the day it might be a sign to back another runner.
  • Is the horse carry extra body weight? Horses like human athletes can go up and down in weight if they are training poorly. Extra body fat might indicate the horse isn’t fully fit.
  •  Muscle definition. Race horses have extremely muscular legs, their rear legs are the most important.
  • Nerves? Does the horse look relaxed, if the horse is rearing up and looking on edge it could be a sign that it doesn’t fancy running today. On jump races this is a really important factor. Nervous horses may mistime or even refuse a jump.

These signs are hard to interpret if you are unfamiliar with the horse. It may always be nervous before the race and still perform well for example. Once you get to know the horses as individuals these signs are absolutely vital.

The Going

The going is a horse racing term for the condition of the race course. Different horses will prefer different ground conditions and perform better depending in the going. If the ground is wet or damp the going will be described as soft or heavy. If a course is dry then it will be described as firm.

Since 2009, British racecourses are required to report penetrometer readings on the day of the race. A penetrometer is also known as the ‘GoingStick’ and is used to determine the going.

Form is usually described by one of the following phrases:

  • Hard
  • Heavy
  • Soft
  • Good to Soft
  • Good
  • Good to Firm
  • Firm

‘Hard’ is extremely rare for any race course and usually a hard course is determined to be too dangerous for both the horses and jockeys so it is unlikely that the race would go ahead on a hard surface.

Soft ground is very tiring for horses to run on so horses that are used to running longer distances may perform better on a soft going. It’s similar to when we run on the beach, it tires the legs a lot quicker. Soft ground often means there are more fallers. A horse that has a history of falling will have an even greater chance of doing so on soft ground. Injuries are rare though as the soft ground cushions any falls.

The course may vary along its run, being soft in places and firmer in others. When looking at horses form you should also look at the going. If a horse consistently performs well on a certain ground type then it could be a good indicator of how the horse will perform on the day.

How a horse runs and its hoof size will often determine it’s performance on any particular ground. Horses like humans have different running techniques. A horse that keeps its legs low (sometimes referred to as a daisy cutter) will be more suited to dry ground. Where as a horse that lifts its legs high with every stride will perform better on softer ground as it clears any mud with each stride. The same can be applied to a horses hoof size. Small hoofs will likely sick into soft ground so that horse will prefer a firm going. Large hoofs may tell us that the horse will outperform its rivals if the going is soft.

Handicap

Handicap races mean that the horses will be carrying weights to try and make the race a more even contest. Stronger runners will carry more weight to give the slower runners a chance to stay with them. For most horse race owners a handicap race is their only chance to win. Without a handicap the strongest horses would win every time and betting on horse racing would probably not exist.
 
A horses handicap is determined by its rating. The British Horse Racing Authority will study a horses form and give it a rating every week. The higher the rating, the better the horse and therefore the more weight it will carry in a handicap race. The rating not only determines what weight a horse will carry but which races it can run it.
 
Being able to understand how a horse will perform when carrying a certain weight in comparison to its competitors will lead to more accurate predictions and therefore more winners for the punter.

Conclusion

All these factors will determine the outcome of a race. Being able to look at all of these together and figure out how a horse will perform is what separates professional gamblers from everyone else. The more you study a horse the more familiar with it you will become, like getting to know an old friend. Then you can predict more accurately what is going to happen in the race.

Using this information to your advantage

Obviously we can look at this and make more informed decisions when placing our bets but there are other ways to turn this to our advantage.

Matched Betting – 2nd to SP favourite offers

Many bookies will give you a refund in the form of a free bet if your selection comes 2nd to the SP (starting price) favourite. One technique we can use is to choose a horse we might come second. We can look at the favourite for the race and use the information above to guess whether the horse might just fall short of winning. By using the lay calculator in normal mode we can lay off our selection at the exchange. This is known as matched betting.

Once we have laid the bet off we effectively have a free shot at getting a free bet from the bookies. If our horse does come second we can then lay the free bet using the lay calculator in ‘Free Bet SNR’ mode to make ourselves a guaranteed profit no matter the out come of the race.

Back to Lay

Horse racing prices are constantly on the move right up until the off and then they start moving even more rapidly as the race gets underway. A un-fancied horse will start a race with very long odds as the bookies have determined it has no chance of winning. Often though we can use this to our advantage. Horses that are not used to running long distances will often lead from the front in a long distance race and then fall away and finish nowhere. These horses will start the race at a huge price but then in play the odds will come tumbling in. Once the odds come in we can lay our back back off and give ourselves a profit before the race finishes. Again using the lay calculator we can work out how much we should lay and at what price to give ourselves a profit we are happy with. This is not risk free like the matched betting 2nd to SP offer but it can yield long term profits if you know how what to look for pre race.

An example of this would be a horse starting a race at 20/1 (21.0), if we were to back this horse for £50 pre race and then wait for its odds to come down to 9/1 (10.0) during the race we could lay the horse for £105.32 and make ourselves a profit of £52.12 no matter where the horse finishes. This is also known as trading and many people make large sums of money every day from trading horses in play.

The odds can move very fast so it’s always best to have worked out your lay stake before the race starts and if you are happy to accept a certain profit or loss you can put your lay bet on and hope it matches during the race. There are specialised software packages that make this process easier.